Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Market's Closed!

From Bloomberg today:

``I've been at National City for 30 years and a month and for 29 of those we've seen nothing like it,'' Thomas Richlovsky, National City's 57-year-old treasurer, said in a telephone interview. ``In past cycles certainly lending, or credit, has gotten more difficult. The cost of credit would go up. In this particular phenomenon of the last year it's not like you can borrow money and the price went up. No, the market's closed.''

All of the classic signs of a depression like liquidation of credit are happening. Spreads for loans over treasury rates are approaching record highs. Credit for all intents and purposes is gone from the market. There's a great unwind happening in the leveraged markets and its causing a massive deflationary event. Deflation is the hallmark of the Great Depression. We haven't even come close to seeing the worst yet unfortunately. I've predicted in the past this will be bad. I'm confirming, this is going to be really, really horrible. Things we've never seen before are going to start happening over the next year or two. Considering we've already seen some once in a life time kick saves from the Fed and Government, that's saying alot.

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