Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Shoulder fakes

In football, you always have to be wary of shoulder fakes. Bite too hard and your jock will be lying on the field. Oil and the dollar are giving the markets a giant shoulder fake. Don't bite! This is not a sign of a recovering economy. The dollar was undervalued and oil overvalued in terms of the global economy. Smart investors are beginning to realize the rest of the world is tanking as quickly or more quickly than the US. This will have a severe impact on global oil demand and is bullish for the dollar. The problem is, the underlying fundamentals for the US economy continue to deteriorate in rapid fashing. The credit crunch is getting much worse and access to capital is continuing to tighten. Any thoughts that oil coming down will offset a massive credit crunch is wishful thinking. Jump on market rallys right now at your own risk. We're still very early in this crisis.

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