Friday, November 7, 2008

How low can we go...

Here's a clip from a Krugman article in the Times. He's half right and half idiot.

GURK ZIRP
That’s Zero Interest Rate Policy — which is now, in the wake of this morning’s terrible employment report, inevitable. Yes, we’re Japan.
Add to this the news of a
retail sales collapse, and we’re looking grim, grim, grim.
Monetary policy obviously isn’t enough. It’s time to raise Keynes: we need big fiscal stimulus, now now now.
Any way we can get current management at Treasury to take early retirement, and get the new guys in right away?
Add: The unemployment rate has now risen more than 2 percentage points from its pre-recession low. In 1990-1992 the unemployment rate rose 2.6 percentage points. Given what’s happening to retail sales, manufacturing, and so on, it’s now a certainty that unemployment has a lot further to rise. So the “worst recession in 25 years” thing is now baked in. The only question is whether we hit “worst slump since the Great Depression” territory.


So, he's right on ZIRP (world going there also), correct about Japan similarities, correct about how fing bad this is going to be, but he along with the majority of our leaders are COMPLETELY RETARDED when they talk about Keynes and Keynsian policy as the answer to this mess. Throwing fiscal stimulus in the form of BORROWED MONEY TO PAY OFF MORE DEBT AND INTEREST is a TRAP. It will crush our economy just as I've been predicting for over a year would happen and then would be implemented. Even my hero David Walker is promoting some of this Keynsian non-sense. I still love him to death (he was on Squawk Box this morning...more on that in a moment), but fiscal stimulus WILL NOT AND CANNOT WORK in an over-leveraged debt driven economy. Has anybody learned from our past experiences and experiments with these methods? Does anyone really understand the mechanisms behind debt bubbles and debt collapses, consumer driven recessions, etc... They are different animals and beasts completely from a lack of liquidity in the system. They are INSOLVENCY and DEBT problems. You must eliminate, reduce or default on the debt to recover...PERIOD. It is SO FUCKING SIMPLE yet not one sound bite in the media has made any sense other than a few marginalized "doomsdayers". We are heading straight into the perfect storm and our leaders are insisting on pushing down the throttle and driving through it. That mindset will seal the collapse of our economy.

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