Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Nationalization of industries

I'm convinced that at least one and probably all three of the following will need to be nationalized in some form or fashion before this crisis is over.

1) Housing: GSE's in particular Fannie and Freddie
2) Airline Industry
3) Auto Industry

NONE of these three have nearly enough capital (money or brains) to make it through the nasty recession/depression that we are going to experience. In particular, by any sane calculations the GSE's are already dead. It's just a formality before the small percentage of loans that need to fail to drain their remaining capital reserves does just that. It's a certainty. It will only take approximately 1% of the loans to go bad for there to be a mortal wound. 1% would be a gift of the gods.

Both the airline industry and the auto industry will need multiple miracles for them to survive as well. Somehow, the energy crisis will miraculously need to resolve itself and take oil to under $100 for a sustainable period. Oil will go down in my opinion unless some foolish attack takes place, but it will be too little, too late to salvage these industries.

Taxpayers will need to step in to save these failures and it won't be pretty. In fact, it could possibly cause the dollar to weaken to the point of a near collapse of faith from our foreign loan sharks. And believe me, they don't want the US to die as a consumer, but when it's clear they are, then they will turn on us with a vengeance. A parasite lives simbiotically with it's host until that host no longer provides what it needs and then it moves on. It has to. A systemic collapse of multiple industries in the US combined with the current obligations on the books for social, security, medicare, medicaid, federal pensions, etc... will render the US federal government insolvent for all intents and purposes. Obviously they can try to print their way out of this, but the repercussions of that action will be the death blow to the dollar and the economy.

The only way out of this mess will be a sustained and dramatic decrease in federal spending, increase in taxes, restructuring of all social obligations and legitimate effort to strengthen the dollar. In other words a massive depression and a big dose of "we fucked up for too long". We're gonna suffer regardless, the question is whether we control our destiny or our destiny is set upon us in a long wave of failed bailouts and undesired consequences.

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