Why history repeats itself

Here is an excerpt from an article that discusses the economic problems in Las Vegas. This is a typical statement from somebody who is destined to continually make the same mistakes over and over. I've bolded the telling statement.

"This is the map of Vegas," he said. "Inside that circle is the city. Outside it, everything is owned by the Bureau of Land Management. So there's really nowhere else for the city to expand. And yet, the census bureau has forecast that the population of Vegas will grow from two million now to three million by 2016. There's nowhere for those people to go. So this town is another Tokyo, with land as a commodity. You fly in here and you see desert and you think, 'Building, building, building'. But it can't be built on, so prices must go up. And all those Harvard economists are missing that key component when doing their prognosis of our market. The way I see it, we have been in check, and are now aligned for the next spurt, and I'm talking a power arc that's got between seven and 10 years to run."

Anybody who compares a recovering real estate industry to the age old adage of Tokyo, Japan and limited real-estate is showing their absolute ignorance when it comes to real estate. Does he even realize that real estate prices in Japan went down for almost 20 years straight and are still in the crapper comparatively? Real estate can and will go down on an island, in a city, on a train, in a house, on a mouse...sorry I have kids. Point being, anyone who thinks that the Sin City will recover in any meaningful fashion in the next 5 years and probably 10 is on a one way trip to bankruptcy. The sins of our past economic failures are coming back to roost and they won't be roosting or spending in Las Vegas.